A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
